Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a persistent heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport already exceeding 100°F earlier this week, making the market’s current 0% YES probability for any specific lower range appear starkly disconnected from the immediate reality. On Polymarket, traders are locking in USDC on the Polygon network to bet on conditional tokens that resolve based on the day’s peak temperature at KLGA, yet the crowd has priced in a near-certain outcome that contradicts the active triple-digit readings observed just hours ago.

Historical data for mid-July at LaGuardia shows daily highs typically averaging 84°F, rarely dipping below 75°F or surging past 93°F, though recent records shatter this norm with midnight temperatures hitting 94°F and daytime peaks reaching 102°F during this specific wave [1][2]. The current 0% pricing likely reflects a misunderstanding of the settlement window or a premature assumption that the heat will break, ignoring that July 21 usually marks the month’s highest average high of 85°F, while this year’s anomaly has already pushed readings well beyond that baseline [1].

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates and Wunderground’s live KLGA feed as the settlement clock ticks toward 12:00 UTC tomorrow, watching for any official announcements on heatwave duration or cooling fronts [3][10]. With FOX Weather confirming the airport reached 102°F recently and breaking daily records, the primary catalyst is whether this extreme persists through the final hours of the settlement window, as the on-chain market will resolve strictly on the highest recorded Fahrenheit value for 12 July 2026 [2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.