Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine which range this contract settles into. The National Weather Service uses LaGuardia as New York City's official temperature station, making this a straightforward meteorological measurement rather than a forecast-dependent outcome. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, reflecting the typical pattern where traders haven't yet positioned ahead of an event roughly 18 months away. The conditional token structure on Polygon means whichever range ultimately contains that day's peak temperature will resolve to $1 USDC per share, whilst all other ranges expire worthless.

Historical July temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The station recorded 104°F on 9 July 1936 during an exceptional heat wave, whilst more recent decades have seen typical July highs between 82–88°F. The 1990s and 2000s produced several days exceeding 95°F, though sustained extreme heat events remain relatively infrequent in midsummer. This historical distribution suggests the modal outcome lies in the 85–92°F range, though traders should account for climate trends and the possibility of anomalous weather systems.

Catalysts shaping this market will emerge gradually. Long-range climate forecasts from NOAA become more reliable within 30 days of the target date, whilst seasonal outlooks available from spring 2026 may indicate whether the northeast expects an above or below-average summer. Extreme weather events elsewhere in North America during June and early July could shift atmospheric patterns affecting New York's weather on the 19th. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, giving traders access to morning forecasts before final pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.