Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026 is the real-world event this market resolves, with the current crowd-implied probability of a "YES" outcome sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, this contract trades with USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens reflect a 47% chance for the 100–101°F range and 37% for 102–103°F, despite the abstract 0% figure for the binary "YES" label. The market’s pricing mechanism is driven by on-chain liquidity and the immediate weather data published by Wunderground, which will determine the final settlement once the first data point for the date is available.

Historical July 2 records in New York City frame how traders interpret these probabilities, with LaGuardia reaching a record-breaking 102°F today, surpassing the 97°F mark set in 1949, while the city’s heat index hit 106 in Central Park. Climatological averages for July highs near 86°F contrast sharply with the current searing heat wave, which has pushed temperatures into the upper 90s and low 100s from Washington to Boston, with humidity making the air feel above 110 degrees in spots. More than 160 million people face major or extreme heat risk through the end of the week, according to the National Weather Service, suggesting that the 0% probability is likely a mispricing given the extreme conditions.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s heat risk updates and the scheduled Fourth of July outdoor events, as these dependencies could amplify the heat index further. A recent CNN report confirms the heat wave is nearing its peak in the Northeast, with LaGuardia Airport soaring to 102°F and forecasts predicting temperatures climbing into the low 100s for Washington, Philadelphia, and Boston. The resolution source, Wunderground, will publish the official daily high once the data point is available, and any delay in this publication could impact the settlement window ending 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z. The current on-chain odds suggest the market is underestimating the likelihood of extreme temperatures, given the documented record-breaking conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.