Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 at LaGuardia Airport is the real-world event this contract tracks, with settlement locked to Wunderground’s daily record. On Polymarket, the market currently prices the “YES” outcome at 0% implied probability, while the 82–83°F range dominates as the frontrunner at 100% certainty [1]. This stark divergence reflects how conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, capture crowd consensus that the event will resolve within that specific band rather than trigger an alternative outcome.

Historically, mid-July highs in NYC cluster near 30°C (86°F), with LaGuardia often recording 82–87°F during typical summer weeks [2]. The 0% YES price suggests traders view the alternative outcome as virtually impossible, aligning with past patterns where July 20 temperatures rarely dip below 70°F. Comparable cases from recent years show that deviations below 80°F are uncommon, reinforcing the market’s confidence in the 82–83°F range as the most probable resolution.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the Northeast, which updates daily and may signal shifts in heatwave intensity or cloud cover ahead of settlement [2]. Any sudden announcement of marine layer intrusion or unseasonal rain could alter temperature trajectories, though current forecasts indicate stable high-pressure conditions. Dependencies include Wunderground’s data feed timing and the exact UTC cutoff for settlement on 20 July 2026 at 12:00Z, which determines the final recorded value.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.