Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this contract with **80–81°F** as the clear front-runner at **72%**, while **82–83°F** sits next at **19%**. For users holding USDC on Polygon, the position settles through conditional tokens against the LaGuardia Airport Station reading, so the key issue is not just whether New York feels hot, but where the day’s *highest* reported airport temperature lands in Wunderground’s final history entry.

The 0% crowd price on **YES** against a late-July New York reading should be read in the context of how often the city spends time in the low- to mid-80s rather than the headline extremes. Even after an early-July heat episode, media reporting showed the city was capable of brief surges to around 100°F during a strong ridge pattern, with AccuWeather cited at the time for forecasts near 100°F and lingering storm risk afterwards.[2] For this market, the relevant comparison is not a citywide average but the single highest observation at KLGA, which can sit a few degrees below broader NYC forecasts.

A trader watching the last hours should focus on forecast updates, cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, and any marine influence that can cap the afternoon peak. The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for LaGuardia, so late-day revisions matter most if the temperature peaks earlier than expected or is clipped by a passing shower. Polymarket’s live contract pricing shows the market still anchored around the low-80s, which implies participants are treating an upper-80s or 90s reading as a tail outcome rather than the base case.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.