Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **84–85°F** band as the lead outcome at **41%**, with **82–83°F** next at **36%**, so the book is leaning towards a warm but not extreme LaGuardia reading rather than a breakout heat spike.[1] For a market settled on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 July, the practical question is how much intraday heat builds before the late-day peak, because the contract resolves on the day’s maximum, not the noon snapshot or the overnight minimum.[1]

For context, a probability near zero on the top end usually signals that traders see little chance of a truly exceptional New York heat event at the airport station, even though the city can still run much hotter than normal in summer.[2][3] On Polymarket, that view is expressed through USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the price reflects where traders think the official Wunderground LaGuardia history page will land once the day’s full temperature trace is in.[1]

The main catalysts are meteorological updates: National Weather Service guidance, airport-adjacent cloud cover, wind direction, and any heat advisory or cold front timing that changes the afternoon peak. Forecast ranges for New York have been wide in heat episodes, with some recent coverage discussing citywide highs well above 100°F in stronger heat domes, but that does not automatically translate into the airport’s recorded maximum.[3] Traders watching this market should focus on whether late-morning heating is strong enough to push LaGuardia into the upper 80s, since that is where the current pricing will be tested.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 26? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.