Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this LaGuardia temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently treating a top reading above the relevant range on 30 July 2026 as effectively off the table. Because the contract settles on the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station and pays in the range that contains that value, traders on Polygon are really expressing a view on the airport’s eventual Wunderground daily maximum, not on a city-wide average. The on-chain position is held through USDC collateral and conditional tokens, so even a narrow change in the forecast or an updated station reading can matter if it shifts the final bracket.

For context, LaGuardia has a history of summer highs that can move sharply with synoptic heat, sea-breeze effects, and cloud cover; nearby New York daily highs in late July have recently sat in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, with forecast products for 30 July showing temperatures around 87–88°F rather than anything extreme.[1][5] Broader July 2026 weather in the city also included a significant early-month heat spell, with New York reaching 100°F during the regional heat wave, which shows the area can still produce high-end spikes when the air mass supports it.[6][13] For a contract like this, the historical analogue is not whether NYC can get hot in summer — it clearly can — but whether the specific airport station finishes near forecast levels or catches a late-day surge.

A trader watching the final hours should focus on the hourly evolution of the airport forecast, any National Weather Service updates, and whether a sea breeze or passing cloud band caps the afternoon maximum before the market’s settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The key dependency is the Wunderground station history for KLGA, since that is the official resolution source here, and the final high can differ from headline Manhattan forecasts or downtown readings. If forecast guidance shifts after the morning run, Polymarket pricing can re-rate quickly, but once the day’s maximum is effectively locked in, the conditional token outcome should converge toward the observed Wunderground value.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 30? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.