Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 4 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" result sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, the contract is priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where the frontrunner outcome is "96–97°F" at 94% probability, while "98–99°F" holds 41% support. This pricing reflects the collective view that extreme heat is highly likely, despite the abstract "YES" probability being zero.

Historical data frames this market sharply: LaGuardia recently recorded its warmest midnight on record at 94°F, breaking the 2013 record of 93°F, and just days prior hit 104°F, surpassing its 1966 daily high of 101°F. Such records indicate a persistent heat dome over the East Coast, making temperatures in the 96–99°F range on 4 July statistically plausible rather than anomalous. The 2026 July forecast for LaGuardia already projects daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, aligning with current market expectations.

Traders should monitor ongoing heat-wave announcements and the National Weather Service’s real-time timeseries for KLGA, as sudden shifts in humidity or wind could alter peak temperatures. Fox Weather recently highlighted the "Midnight Milestone" event, confirming that holiday travel surges are occurring alongside extreme heat, which may sustain high overnight temperatures. With the settlement window ending 2026-07-04T12:00:00Z, any official Wunderground update for that day will resolve the market, making timely data checks essential for position management.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.