Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

A dangerous heatwave is currently intensifying across New York City and the broader East Coast, bringing scorching temperatures well above seasonal averages through 6 July 2026. On 5 July, the city reached a record-breaking high of 104°F (40°C), and overnight lows remained above 85°F (29°C), limiting any relief from the oppressive heat stress.

Historical data frames the current market probability of 0% for extreme heat as a mispricing, given that July highs in New York typically range between 69°F and 89°F with an average of 84°F. While recent Polymarket data shows a 75% chance for 70–71°F, this contradicts the active heat dome and the urban heat island effect that has already driven temperatures past 100°F in the region.

Traders must monitor the scheduled arrival of a stronger-than-modeled marine air mass expected to push into Manhattan before peak heating hours, which could temporarily drive temperatures down to 72–73°F. However, weather experts indicate the heatwave will likely persist for another day or two, with temperatures only starting to drop slightly by 7 July, meaning the LaGuardia Airport Station will likely record highs well over 100°F. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, settled in USDC via conditional tokens, will resolve based on Wunderground data, making the timing of this marine intrusion the critical catalyst for the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.