Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **1% YES**, so traders are effectively treating an extremely high Paris-Le Bourget reading on 3 August as a tail event. Because the market settles against the day’s **highest temperature in °C** at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station on Wunderground, the trade is not about a single noon forecast but about the warmest observation anywhere in the settlement window, with shares paid out through the usual USDC-on-Polygon conditional-token structure if the mapped outcome resolves.

That low probability sits against a summer pattern that has already produced severe heat in France this year. Recent reporting described France’s fourth heatwave of 2026 and noted Paris reaching 40.9°C during the June event, while other French locations pushed far higher, showing that triple-digit-style European heat can still arrive when blocking highs set up over western Europe.[20][9][11] For this market, the important comparison is not Paris averages in August, which are usually much lower, but the ability of a short-lived synoptic pattern to lift the airport reading into a rarer band than the crowd currently expects.[12][18]

A trader watching this should track the latest Paris forecasts, especially any late-arriving ridge, thunderstorms, or Atlantic cooling that can cap the afternoon maximum before the Wunderground settlement cut-off. The practical catalyst is whether model updates narrow the day’s expected high towards the upper 30s or keep it near seasonal norms, because even a few degrees matter when the market is priced near zero. In Polymarket terms, any fresh forecast shift can move the implied probability quickly, since conditional tokens on Polygon reprice continuously as information changes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.