Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Paris-Le Bourget Airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, with traders effectively assigning no chance that the day’s highest recorded temperature falls into the YES range before the settlement window closes on 5 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC. On Polymarket, positions are bought and sold in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with outcome exposure represented by **conditional tokens**, so the market price is the cleanest signal of where the crowd thinks the terminal value will land.

For context, Paris in early August usually sits in the mid-20s Celsius, and several forecast products for 5 August point to highs around **24–29°C**, with a dry, sunny spell and some models nearer **25°C** for the day.[2][4][5][10][11] That matters because the contract resolves to the **highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station**, not the city-centre reading, and airport observations can differ from headline Paris forecasts. A zero price suggests traders either expect the contract’s YES range to be narrow or believe the current forecast leaves little room for the day’s maximum to clear it.

The main catalysts are the live forecast updates, any heat advisories, and the actual hourly temperature path through the morning and early afternoon, since the settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Paris-Le Bourget.[1] Traders should watch for changes in cloud cover, wind, and the timing of any afternoon heating, because a modest upward revision in the forecast could matter more than the broader monthly average. Any late-surface warming at the airport, or a cooler-than-expected morning that still allows strong midday insolation, is the sort of intraday dependency that can move a weather contract like this before the on-chain close.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.