Highest temperature in Paris on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s air temperature at Le Bourget Airport on 23 July 2026 is already priced by Polymarket as a near-certainty for the **25°C** bracket, with that outcome shown at **100%** and every lower band at **0%**. On the actual market, traders are buying and selling **USDC-settled conditional tokens** on Polygon, so the quoted price is the collective view of where the day’s *highest recorded* temperature will land, not a forecast of the exact number itself.

That pricing sits within a very ordinary Paris July climate profile. Paris’s average July high is about **26°C**, and typical daily highs across the month can range from roughly **20°C to 43°C**, so a mid-20s outcome is squarely seasonal rather than exceptional.[2] For market reading, the key point is that this contract resolves off the **Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station** value on Wunderground, which makes local station readings more important than city-centre impressions or broader regional forecasts.

For traders, the main catalysts are the same ones that move any same-day temperature market: morning forecast updates, cloud cover timing, and the afternoon peak temperature window before the 12:00Z settlement cutoff. Because the settlement source is a specific airport station, small changes in the official forecast path, a passing shower, or a late-day sea-breeze effect can matter more than headline Paris weather commentary. In practice, once the day is underway, the remaining risk is mostly whether the station posts a brief spike above the currently implied band before the market closes.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.