Highest temperature in Paris on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the **24°C** and **23°C** buckets as the likeliest outcomes for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport reading, with the contract still trading across an 11-way temperature range rather than a simple hot-versus-cold binary.[1] Because settlement uses the day’s *highest* temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on the Wunderground history page, the relevant question is not what the city feels like at noon, but whether the station’s peak reaches into a higher band before the market closes.[1]

Historically, late-July Paris sits in a summer range where peaks in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius are common, but heatwaves can lift daytime maxima well above that level.[4] That matters for Polymarket users holding USDC on Polygon, because the market is a stack of conditional tokens tied to a single official observation, and the current pricing implies traders see a modest top-end ceiling rather than a clear break into the hotter buckets.[1][4]

For catalysts, watch the local forecast for the Paris area, especially any shifts in cloud cover, rain, or Atlantic cooling that would cap the afternoon high before the airport station posts its maximum.[2][3] Midday-to-late-afternoon conditions matter most because the settlement source records the highest temperature for the full day, so a brief warm spike can flip the final bucket even if the rest of the day is milder.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 26? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.