Highest temperature in Paris on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 7 July 2026 is currently priced by the Polymarket crowd at 33°C with a 56% probability, while the "YES" outcome for any temperature above 36°C sits at 0%. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects a collective view that the day will be hot but not record-breaking, despite live weather alerts warning of an intense heatwave across northern France.

Historical precedents frame this probability sharply: France recorded 44.3°C on 23 June 2026 during a European heatwave, and Paris itself hit 42.4°C on 25 July 2019, yet the market today assigns near-zero chance to temperatures exceeding 36°C. The leading outcome of 33°C aligns with the July 6 market, which settled at 34°C with 100% certainty, suggesting a slight cooling trend or stabilisation despite the red alert for dangerous heat that officials have issued for the region.

Traders must monitor the scheduled release of Wunderground data for Paris-Le Bourget, specifically the daily high temperature, which will resolve the market when the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 July 2026. Recent forecasts from weather experts indicate highs could reach 41°C on 7 July, with officials advising residents to avoid heavy exercise between 12:00 and 18:00, while a small chance of storms later in the week may offer temporary relief; these dependencies will directly impact the final resolution value.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.