Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Qingdao’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Jiaodong International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. Today, Polymarket prices the “YES” outcome for any specific range at 0%, while the frontrunner outcome of 29°C holds a 25% implied probability, matched closely by 30°C at the same level [1]. Traders on Polygon settle these conditional tokens in USDC, reflecting a market that currently sees no conviction in any single band despite clear seasonal signals.

Historical July data frames this pricing: Qingdao’s coastal position keeps daytime highs near 27°C on average, though typical daily peaks reach 29°C (83°F) with night lows around 23°C [2][3]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome likely refers to a specific, narrow range not yet favoured, while the 25% stakes on 29°C and 30°C align with the historical high of 29°C and the possibility of a heat spike above the average [2][3]. High humidity and a 34% daily rain chance in July often suppress extremes, yet fog and variable wind speeds (averaging 19.3 kph) can create short-lived temperature surges [3].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily history for ZSQD as the settlement source, watching for real-time updates on 16 July before the 12:00 UTC deadline [1]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in sea fog, rainfall intensity, or wind patterns that could push temperatures above the 27°C average toward the 29–30°C range [2][3]. No formal announcements are scheduled, but the resolution depends entirely on the recorded peak at the airport station, making live weather data the sole dependency for position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.