Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Today, the Polymarket contract for this outcome prices the "YES" side at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not reach the specific threshold tied to that outcome. This pricing sits alongside active conditional tokens on the Polygon network, where USDC settles payouts for correct predictions, reflecting a market that currently sees no chance for the event to materialise.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability against Qingdao’s typical July climate, where average highs hover between 25°C and 30°C, with the month’s warmest day usually occurring on 31 July at 27.7°C[3]. Recent markets show similar caution; the 8 July Qingdao peak temperature market priced 31°C at 33–37%, while 32°C trailed at 28%[1], suggesting traders expect highs to stay below extreme thresholds. Current live conditions show heavy rain with a high of only 21°C and 94% humidity, reinforcing the view that extreme heat is unlikely on this date[2].

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any sudden shifts in forecast models[1]. A key catalyst is the scheduled release of the 9 July daily high temperature record, which will determine settlement; any announcement of a heatwave or rapid pressure drop could alter the implied probability. While AccuWeather forecasts July highs ranging from 79°F to 91°F (26°C–33°C), the current 21°C reading with persistent rain suggests the market’s 0% pricing remains grounded in immediate meteorological reality[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.