Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 30 June 2026 at the São Paulo–Guarulhos International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% for the "YES" outcome, reflecting a near-zero chance that the temperature will exceed the specific threshold tied to the market’s resolution range. This pricing is driven by on-chain mechanics using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens aggregate trader sentiment into a single probability figure.

Historically, June in São Paulo is mildly cool and breezy, with average highs of 23°C and lows of 13°C, and the city typically feels humid but cool[1]. Recent data from the last 15 days shows the highest temperature in June 2026 was 26.0°C (78.8°F) on 22 June, while the lowest was 9.4°C (48.9°F) on 18 June[2]. Even the hottest day in São Paulo’s recorded history occurred in November 2023 at 38.5°C, and the highest December temperature was 35.9°C in 2024, both far outside the typical June range[5][6]. These comparable cases frame the current 0% probability as consistent with seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily report for SBGR, which will serve as the resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in weather patterns linked to regional climate announcements or forecast updates from Brazilian meteorological services. While no specific recent news source directly addresses June 2026 temperatures, the PredictWind historical records for São Paulo in June 2026 provide detailed daily averages that may signal deviations from the norm[7]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 30 June 2026, so timely access to the final Wunderground entry is critical for accurate on-chain resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.