Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is expected to record a peak temperature on 16 July 2026 that falls squarely within the 64–65°F range, a conclusion the on-chain market has already priced in with near-total certainty. Traders on Polymarket, operating via USDC on the Polygon network, see the conditional tokens for this outcome commanding a 100% probability, while all other temperature brackets, including the 0% YES implied for any extreme heat, sit effectively worthless. This pricing reflects a market that has moved past speculation and into a state of settled expectation, driven by the region’s typical mid-summer climate patterns.

Historical July data for Seattle supports this tight pricing, with average daytime highs rarely exceeding 26°C (roughly 79°F) and frequent moderation from coastal breezes. Comparable cases from recent years show that temperatures above 85°F are rare anomalies, usually tied to specific heat dome events that have not been forecast for this period. The current 0% probability assigned to higher ranges aligns with the long-term norm where Seattle’s airport station typically records highs between 60°F and 70°F in mid-July, making the 64–65°F bracket the statistically dominant outcome.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history feed for KSEA as the primary resolution source, watching for any unexpected weather model updates from major agencies like the National Weather Service. While no specific heat announcements are currently active, the dependency remains on the absence of a Pacific heat dome, a catalyst that would shift probabilities dramatically if forecasters issued a warning. With settlement closing at 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z, the market’s current stance leaves little room for volatility unless a sudden atmospheric shift occurs in the coming days.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.