Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Seattle-Tacoma airport reading for 22 July at a **94-95°F** outcome with essentially full confidence, even though the contract settles on the highest temperature actually recorded at KSEA in the settlement window and pays out in **USDC** via **Polygon** conditional tokens.[1] For users, that means the relevant question is not Seattle’s general city weather, but whether the airport’s official daily peak lands inside the listed band on Wunderground, which is the resolution source for the market.[1]

That 100% crowd price is anchored in how July heat has already behaved in Seattle this cycle: the market is not being asked to call an extreme outlier, but to match a late-July warmth profile that is already broadly consistent with the season. Seattle’s July average high is around 75°F, but the current state of the book implies traders expect a markedly hotter-than-average day, with the airport’s recorded maximum clustering near the mid-90s rather than the cooler bands still sitting at 0%.[1][3] For a hands-on Polymarket user, that makes the market look more like a settlement check on a realised weather print than a live directional bet.

The main catalysts are operational rather than narrative: the key inputs are the official KSEA observation stream, the timing of the daily maximum, and whether any late-afternoon warm-up or marine layer suppresses the final high before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off.[1] In practical terms, traders will watch the airport’s reported highs on Wunderground and any nearby meteorological updates that could shift the day’s peak by a degree or two, since that is enough to move the result between adjacent temperature bins.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.