Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the chance of the Incheon Intl Airport Station’s 1 August high landing in the relevant settlement band is still being assigned no probability on-chain. On Polymarket, that means the outstanding **USDC** position on **Polygon** is concentrated in the opposite outcome, with the payoff determined by the temperature reading that Wunderground records for the airport station before the **12:00 UTC** settlement window closes.

For context, Seoul’s August climate is normally hot and humid: average highs are around **30°C**, and the hottest part of the month often sits in the low- to mid-30s rather than in extreme territory.[1][3][14] WeatherSpark puts Seoul’s average August daily highs near **85°F** and notes they rarely exceed **91°F**, while historical Korean heat events show that exceptional spikes above **35°C** do occur, including the **39.6°C** Seoul reading on 1 August 2018.[2][15] That history matters for reading a zero price: a 0% quote reflects today’s market view, not a guarantee that an intraday heat burst cannot arrive.

The main trader watchpoint is the live forecast path for the airport station, especially overnight rain, cloud cover, and any late-morning warming before the source updates on Wunderground. Seoul’s broader August pattern usually includes showers and high humidity, which can suppress extremes on some days even when the month is hot overall.[3][14] For settlement mechanics, the only figures that matter are the Wunderground daily-history maximum for **Incheon Intl Airport Station** and the market’s temperature bracket definitions, so any forecast revision that shifts the expected peak by even a degree can matter once the event begins trading against the conditional-token outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.