Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, so the chain is currently saying there is effectively no market belief that the Incheon airport station will post a qualifying high in the target range by the settlement cut-off. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through USDC-backed positions on Polygon, with the outcome ultimately resolved by the market’s conditional tokens against the Weather Underground daily observations table rather than the headline day-high summary.

For context, the setup is a standard late-summer temperature bet in the Seoul/Incheon corridor: official Korean forecasts have been calling for very hot conditions, with the Korea Meteorological Administration putting today’s highs around **33–35°C** for the Seoul–Incheon area and VisitSeoul showing **33°C** for tomorrow, while commercial forecasters are clustering near the mid-30s Celsius for Seoul, including **34°C** from AccuWeather and the Weather Network. That matters because the target is not merely “hot weather”, but the exact temperature band reached at Incheon International Airport, where coastal moderation, cloud cover and timing can keep the recorded maximum below nearby inland values.

The main catalysts to watch are the day’s forecast updates, the timing of peak heating, and any sea-breeze or cloud changes that suppress the airport station’s afternoon high. The KMA short-range outlook is the most relevant public guide for Seoul/Incheon conditions, and SBS reported that the region remains under intense heat, with Seoul and Incheon expected to see highs around **33°C** and ozone levels in Incheon at “bad” on Monday afternoon. Since the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**, traders should pay attention to the local morning-to-midday temperature path, because a late rise after that window would not help the contract.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.