Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing extreme heat, with temperatures reaching 37.8°C on 8 July, the highest ever recorded in the South Korean capital during the 1–10 July period since records began[1]. This real-world spike frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the "Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?" market, suggesting traders view a further record-break as statistically improbable despite the intense baseline. Historical data shows July averages hover around 28–30°C, yet the 2026 forecast projects daily highs between 30°C and 35°C (86–95°F), with humidity pushing felt temperatures over 34°C[2][4]. The monsoon season, which peaks in July, brings frequent rain that typically suppresses maximum temperatures, though inland cities like Seoul remain hotter than coastal areas[4].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for sudden shifts in precipitation or heatwave intensity, as these directly impact the resolution source at Incheon Intl Airport[9]. A recent report from The Straits Times confirms the unprecedented 37.8°C reading, highlighting that such extremes are rare even in peak summer[1]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will resolve based on Wunderground’s highest temperature for all times on 10 July 2026, meaning any afternoon rain shower could cap the day’s peak below the 37°C threshold[1]. Watch for official announcements on heatwave advisories or monsoon progression schedules, as these dependencies dictate whether the market’s 0% probability holds or if a late surge in temperature becomes plausible. The on-chain mechanics ensure transparent, automated settlement once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.