Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is already experiencing scorching early-July heat, with recent records showing the city hitting 37.8°C, the hottest early July in 117 years[1][5]. This historical precedent frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the market: traders are pricing in near-certainty that the peak temperature on 13 July 2026 will fall outside the specific range offered, likely because the range is set too low to capture Seoul’s typical mid-July extremes, which often soar above 35°C under the North Pacific high-pressure system[9].

On Polymarket.za.com, this contract trades as a conditional token on Polygon, settled in USDC, where the 0% price reflects a consensus that the Wunderground data for Incheon Intl Airport Station will not land in the YES range. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and real-time Wunderground updates for the Incheon station, as any deviation from the 2025 pattern of 22 consecutive tropical nights above 25°C could shift odds[2][3]. A sudden drop in humidity or an unexpected rain front before noon UTC on 13 July would be the key catalyst to watch, though current trends suggest sustained high heat.

The market’s settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 13 July 2026, locking in the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon station for that day. Given South Korea’s record-breaking July of 2025, where Seoul reached 37.7°C and the nation hit 41.0°C in Hongcheon, the baseline expectation is for temperatures well above 35°C, making the current 0% price a rational reflection of historical volatility and regional climate patterns[4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.