Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 15 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official benchmark for the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the event will not resolve within the specified range, likely due to an expectation of extreme heat exceeding the upper bound or a specific threshold mismatch.

Historically, mid-July in Seoul regularly sees temperatures between 28°C and 35°C, with record highs reaching 39.6°C in 2018 at the same station. Comparable years like 2023 and 2024 recorded peaks of 37.4°C and 36.8°C respectively, suggesting that a 0% probability may reflect an overconfident bet against the upper limit rather than a genuine expectation of cool conditions. Traders should scrutinise whether the range excludes these typical summer extremes.

Key catalysts include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave outlook and real-time radar feeds from Wunderground, which updates hourly. A recent forecast from Yonhap News (12 July 2026) indicates a high-pressure system will dominate the region, pushing temperatures toward 36–38°C. On-chain, USDC liquidity on Polygon remains thin for this contract, meaning conditional token spreads could widen sharply if new data shifts the implied probability. Monitor the 06:00 UTC update for the first official reading from RKSI.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.