Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 at Incheon International Airport is the real-world event determining this Polymarket contract, which currently prices the YES outcome at 0% using USDC on Polygon. The market resolves to the Celsius range containing the peak reading from the RKSI station, sourced via Wunderground’s daily history for that location.

Historical July weather in Seoul typically sees daytime highs between 25–30°C, with occasional spikes nudging 30°C and midday humidity pushing felt temperatures above 34°C [1][3]. The month sits in the heart of Korea’s monsoon season, making it the rainiest period and often tempering extreme heat through frequent showers, though brief clear spells can still produce upper-20s to low-30s readings [1]. Given this pattern, a 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect the day to remain well below the threshold required for a YES resolution, likely due to anticipated cloud cover or rainfall.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s 72-hour forecast for Incheon, particularly any updates on monsoon front positioning or sudden heatwave advisories scheduled for mid-July [1]. A key dependency is the timing of the next rain system; if the front stalls or delays, unseasonably clear skies could trigger a rapid temperature spike. Recent travel guidance emphasises lightweight clothing and hats due to July’s intense humidity, reinforcing the expectation of warm but not extreme conditions unless a dry anomaly occurs [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.