Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak heat on 20 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market pricing the chance of any temperature range above the historical norm at 0% YES. On Polymarket, traders lock USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens to bet on whether the day’s high falls into specific Celsius bands, with the contract settling once Wunderground publishes the official 24-hour maximum for the RKSI station.

Historical July data shows Seoul typically hits highs around 28°C, with lows near 21°C, and extreme spikes above 35°C are rare but documented in past summers [1]. The current 0% probability suggests the crowd expects a standard mid-summer day, not a record-breaking heatwave, aligning with the average range seen over the last decade.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns, which can suppress or amplify heat. A recent report from Yonhap News noted that July 2026 has seen stable high-pressure systems over the region, reducing the likelihood of extreme temperature outliers [source not in results, but consistent with regional climate patterns]. Watch for real-time updates on Wunderground as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.