Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with 25 July falling squarely within the season's most intense period. The Incheon International Airport weather station, which serves as the official measurement point for this market, typically records daily highs between 28–32°C during this window, though extreme heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The current 0% probability assigned by Polymarket traders suggests the crowd expects the settlement range to fall outside whatever threshold defines the highest bracket—a positioning that reflects confidence in typical mid-summer conditions rather than exceptional heat events.

Historical data from the past decade shows Seoul's late-July temperatures cluster predictably. In 2023, the 25th reached 31°C; in 2022, 30°C; in 2021, 32°C. Notably, Korea experienced a severe heat wave in August 2018 that pushed temperatures above 39°C, but such extremes are rare in late July specifically. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects traders' assessment that the highest temperature bracket—presumably 35°C or above—remains an outlier scenario rather than a base-case expectation for this particular date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the weeks leading to settlement, particularly any alerts for heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. The East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and timing directly influence Seoul's temperature profile in late July. Recent years have seen increasing volatility in seasonal weather patterns, though the Incheon station's consistent measurement methodology provides reliable historical comparison. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's recorded data for that specific station on the day itself.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.