Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** right now, which implies the market sees almost no chance that the highest temperature at Incheon Intl Airport Station will land in the specified resolution range. Because settlement is based on the Wunderground daily record for Incheon, traders are effectively pricing the airport’s peak reading on 27 July rather than Seoul city-centre weather more broadly, and the outcome will be determined by the temperature value captured in USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon.

The current reading sits against a summer climatology where Seoul and the wider capital region often see highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius in July. A comparable case is the present weather pattern: a Korean forecast issued on 26 July says showers are expected in the capital region on Monday, with Seoul forecast at 26–33°C and daytime highs across nearby cities mostly below the upper-30s heat seen elsewhere in the country.[1] That matters because a wet or cloudier start can cap early-day heating, which is often enough to keep airport maxima from surging into rarer, hotter bands.

The main catalysts are the day’s actual heat build-up, the timing and intensity of rain in the capital region, and any late shifts in the forecast before the settlement window closes. The Chosun report flags showers from the morning and rainfall in Seoul of 5–40 mm, which is the kind of dependency that can materially affect the final airport maximum.[1] Traders watching the contract should also track the Wunderground station page itself, since the market resolves to that source’s daily high rather than any separate city forecast or national headline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.