Highest temperature in Seoul on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s July 4 high temperature is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the market currently pricing a 29°C hit at just 30.5% implied probability, while the crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome sits at 0% YES for the current bracket. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades on Polygon using USDC, where the NO side at $0.70 is the market-f favoured position, reflecting that traders see a roughly one-in-three chance of 29°C but no majority outcome across the six other temperature brackets.

Historical patterns frame how to read this low probability: July in South Korea is the rainiest month, with average daily highs near 27.7°C and frequent monsoon showers that suppress peak temperatures, even though humidity can make conditions feel above 34°C. The 29°C bracket is the single most likely outcome yet remains a minority call, consistent with past years where short, heavy rainfalls in July prevent sustained high-temperature spikes, as seen in the 2025 record of 22 tropical nights when temperatures hit 41.2°C but only under exceptional heatwave conditions [9].

Traders should watch the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for shower intensity and precipitation probability, which currently show a 60% chance of slight rainfall with temperatures feeling 26°C, a key dependency that could push the day’s high below 29°C [6]. Additionally, monitor the Sinchon Water Gun Festival schedule (July 4–12), a recent event that increases local moisture and cooling effects, potentially altering the temperature range [2]. The resolution source is Wunderground’s official daily maximum for Incheon Intl Airport Station, closing at noon KST on July 4, 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.