Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 6 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius band containing that peak. Today, Polymarket prices the 26°C outcome at 42% implied probability, while 27°C sits at 40%, and the 28°C contract trades at $0.41 YES despite a crowd-implied probability of 0% for the specific “YES” resolution in your title variant [1][2]. All trades settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with final resolution locked at noon Seoul time on 6 July based on Wunderground’s daily maximum for the RKSI station [1].

Historically, July highs in Seoul cluster between 25–30°C, with 27°C acting as a typical midday anchor and occasional spikes nudging 30°C during humid monsoon spells [2][5]. Climate data shows the average July maximum at 27.7°C, rarely falling below 24°C or exceeding 33°C, meaning the market’s frontrunner outcomes (26–27°C) align closely with long-term norms rather than outlier heat events [6]. The 0% probability on your specific 28°C YES contract reflects its narrow one-degree band amid nine competing temperature ranges, not a dismissal of 28°C as implausible [1].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts, which currently show cloudy conditions with a 30% precipitation probability and a “feels like” temperature of 28°C [8]. Recent AccuWeather and timeanddate models project a 6 July high near 30°C amid ongoing East Asian monsoon activity, suggesting potential upside pressure on higher bands if rain delays or humidity intensifies [2]. Any official KMA update between now and resolution will directly impact conditional token pricing, as the $2,192 total volume indicates high sensitivity to forecast revisions [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.