Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s airport temperature on 2 August will be settled from the highest reading logged at Pudong International Airport, and Polymarket’s conditional tokens on Polygon will pay out in USDC only if the final Wunderground value lands in the selected range. With the market still priced at **0% YES**, the contract is effectively saying traders assign no chance to a range match at current levels, which is notable because the underlying event is a single-day airport maximum rather than a city-wide average.

The historical frame points to a hot but not extreme August profile. Shanghai’s August daily highs typically sit in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with one climate source putting average highs around 32°C and another showing August highs commonly near 35°C, while record heat has reached about 39.5°C to 41°C in recent years.[2][4][5] That means a settlement in the upper 30s °C is materially less common than a mid-30s outcome, but it is not outside Shanghai’s observed summer range.[2][3][5] For traders, the key issue is that the market settles on the *day’s maximum* at the airport station, so intraday spikes matter more than the average weather headline.

The main catalysts are any hot-air advection, heavy cloud, or thunderstorm timing that could cap the afternoon peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, which is 20:00 local time in Shanghai. Forecast services currently describe early-August Shanghai as warm and humid, with daytime highs commonly in the high 20s to low 30s °C and a meaningful rain/thunderstorm risk, which can suppress the maximum if convection arrives early.[8][10][16] For a Polymarket user, the practical watch-list is the airport forecast, radar trends, and whether any late-morning sunshine holds long enough for the station to print its daily peak before conditions turn wetter or cloudier.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.