Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shanghai temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently assigning no visible chance to a qualifying high at Shanghai Pudong International Airport by the settlement cut-off. The contract resolves from the **highest temperature recorded that day** at the airport station on Wunderground, with payouts via **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens, so traders are effectively wagering on the station’s official daily maximum rather than Shanghai citywide weather.

That zero price sits against a summer climatology that is plainly hot: August in Shanghai is usually around the low 30s Celsius at the daily high, with average highs commonly cited around **31–32°C** and humidity remaining elevated.[1][4][8][18] Several August 2026 forecasts already point to highs in the **33–34°C** range, with one day-by-day model showing **34°C** on 4 August and another putting early-August highs near **31°C** to **34°C**.[2][3][10][16] For a station-based market, that matters because an airport observation can differ from broader Shanghai forecasts, but the seasonal baseline still leaves plenty of room for a typical summer maximum rather than an extreme outlier.[1][8][12]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any shift in cloud cover or shower/thunderstorm timing, and whether the daily maximum arrives before or after local afternoon convective activity develops. Shanghai’s August pattern often includes heat plus rain days, and some forecast providers already flag possible patchy rain for 4 August, which would matter if it caps the daytime high even when morning temperatures start warm.[3][4][5][12] Traders should also watch airport-specific observations as the day unfolds: if early readings are already in the low 30s Celsius, the market can reprice quickly, but if cloud and rain build earlier than expected, the realised maximum may stay lower than the monthly averages imply.[17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.