Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms July is the hottest month for the region, with average highs reaching 87°F (30.6°C) and summer peaks regularly exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells[3][5]. Current 2026 forecasts for July indicate daily highs ranging from 86°F to 97°F (30°C to 36°C), suggesting temperatures will comfortably sit within the 30–35°C bracket rather than the extreme ranges implied by a zero-per-cent YES probability[2]. The market’s pricing appears to misalign with these established climatic baselines, where temperatures below 30°C are statistically rare for mid-July in Shanghai[1].

Traders should monitor hourly weather updates and short-term forecast adjustments, as the settlement relies on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for all times on the day[4]. Recent hourly data for 10 July already shows a maximum of 32°C at 14:00, with clear skies and minimal precipitation expected through the afternoon[4][10]. No specific weather announcements are pending, but the dependency on real-time sensor data means any sudden cloud cover or rain could alter the final reading. The on-chain mechanics on Polymarket utilise USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens resolve automatically once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026. Given the current 32°C reading, the probability of the temperature falling into the 30–35°C range is objectively high, contradicting the market’s current 0% valuation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.