Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport faces a day of strong winds and rain on Sunday 12 July, with a forecast high of 30°C, making a record-breaking heat event virtually impossible today [8]. This aligns with the market’s current 0% YES probability, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC while overcast conditions and precipitation suppress temperatures well below the 35°C threshold often seen in peak summer [5].

Historically, July highs at Pudong rarely exceed 35°C, with average daily highs ranging from 29°C to 31°C and only occasional spikes to 35°C during the most sunny spells [1][5]. The all-time record for Shanghai reached 41°C (105°F) on 26 July, but such extremes are tied to specific, prolonged heatwaves rather than typical mid-July variability [10]. Given today’s wet, windy forecast, the temperature is unlikely to approach even the upper end of the normal range, reinforcing the zero probability assigned by the crowd.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official resolution, as the market settles strictly on the highest temperature recorded at ZSPD by 12:00 UTC [1]. No further announcements or schedules are pending; the outcome depends entirely on the observed weather data for this specific day. With current conditions showing 89% humidity and heavy rain expected through the evening, the probability of a high temperature exceeding the settlement range remains negligible [4][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.