Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s July 13, 2026, heat peak at Pudong Airport is the real-world event determining this Polymarket contract, with the crowd currently pricing a YES outcome at 0%. On-chain, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens representing temperature ranges, locking exposure until the 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z settlement window closes. The market resolves strictly via Wunderground’s recorded high for ZSPD, not city-wide averages or other stations.

Historically, Shanghai’s July highs frequently exceed 35°C, with 7–15 days per month hitting that threshold, and peaks occasionally reaching 40°C or higher [1]. The all-time station record at Xujiahui hit 40.9°C in a recent extreme spell, while long-term summer averages sit near 37.0°C with daily maxima rarely exceeding 96°F (35.6°C) [2][3]. Given this 0% YES probability, the market likely implies the forecasted range is implausibly low for mid-July, contradicting the region’s typical thermal behaviour.

Traders should monitor the National Climate Center’s daily heat advisories and local meteorological bulletins for real-time temperature projections ahead of settlement [8]. Recent national data confirms China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures eclipsing previous highs, suggesting a persistent warming trend that could elevate Shanghai’s 2026 peaks [10]. Watch for any official announcements on extreme heat warnings or ozone plagues, as these often precede record-breaking days at Pudong Airport.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.