Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026 at Pudong International Airport will determine this market’s outcome, with the current crowd-implied probability for any specific range sitting at 0% YES for the listed option. On Polymarket, traders are pricing the contract in USDC on Polygon, using conditional tokens to bet on temperature bands; today, the front-runner is 38°C at 56%, followed by 39°C at 23%, reflecting active liquidity and real-time odds updates as shares are bought and sold[1].

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai is consistently hot and muggy, with daytime highs often reaching 35–39°C under sunny conditions[4]. Current forecasts for Pudong today show a maximum of 35°C, with a minimum of 28°C, broken clouds, and light rain expected[3]. Given that 38°C is the market’s leading probability, traders should view the 0% YES price as a mispricing relative to seasonal norms, unless an unusual cooling system or weather anomaly is imminent.

Key catalysts include daily Wunderground updates for Pudong Station, which will serve as the official resolution source, and any sudden shifts in regional monsoon patterns or heatwave announcements from China’s meteorological authority. Traders should monitor the 70% probability of precipitation and ~1 mm rain forecast for today, as moisture could suppress peak temperatures below 38°C[2]. No major weather-related announcements have been issued yet, but the settlement window closes at 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z, making intraday data critical.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.