Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. Today, Polymarket prices the contract at 0% for a YES outcome on any specific range, yet the frontrunner is 38°C at 46%, followed by 37°C at 28%[1]. This divergence between the aggregate YES probability and the leading outcome reflects how conditional tokens on Polygon split risk across discrete ranges, while USDC liquidity remains concentrated where traders expect the heat to land.

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai routinely sees peaks between 36°C and 39°C at Pudong, with 38°C a common high in recent years. Current forecasts for today show a maximum of 36°C with thunderstorm rain and broken clouds, suggesting the day may fall just below the 38°C frontrunner[2][3]. Traders should note that a 0% YES price often signals uncertainty about which range will win, not that the event is impossible, as the market still assigns significant weight to the 38°C outcome.

Watch the hourly Wunderground updates for Pudong after 06:00 UTC, as the settlement source is the day’s highest temperature from that station[1]. No official announcements or schedules are expected to alter the reading, but sudden convective activity—like the thunderstorms forecast—could suppress the peak. The dependency is purely on the real-time data feed, so monitor the Wunderground history page as the day progresses to gauge whether the 38°C or 37°C range will capture the final reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.