Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer heat peaks in late July, with the city regularly experiencing daily highs exceeding 35°C during this period. The settlement hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport on 21 July 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Wunderground's historical weather database. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature bands, suggesting traders are either awaiting price discovery or treating the market as illiquid pending clearer definition of which specific temperature range will resolve affirmatively.

Historical data from Shanghai's meteorological records shows July 21st temperatures have ranged between 32°C and 38°C over the past two decades, with 2013 recording 37.9°C and 2003 reaching 38.1°C on comparable dates. The 0% probability across all bands reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine certainty about outcomes; once individual temperature ranges are priced on Polygon's conditional token architecture, traders holding USDC will arbitrage based on seasonal forecasts and climate patterns. Shanghai's location in the Yangtze River Delta, combined with urban heat island effects, typically produces higher readings at the airport station than surrounding areas.

Traders monitoring this contract should track tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early July, as typhoons can suppress temperatures significantly. The China Meteorological Administration issues 10-day forecasts in mid-July that will provide concrete guidance; any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early monsoon shifts or heat domes—could shift probabilities materially once conditional tokens begin trading. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 21 July 2026, allowing Wunderground's historical data to populate fully before resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.