Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shanghai airport heat contract at **0% YES** even though the real-world outcome still depends on the highest reading recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 24 July, settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. In practical terms, the market is saying the current path to a temperature landing in the specified YES range is being treated as negligible, so traders are effectively betting on whether the day’s peak at the station clears the relevant threshold before the settlement window closes.

July in Shanghai is normally hot, humid and prone to showers, with typical highs around **32°C** and frequent rainfall, so the contract is best read as a local weather-range question rather than a broad city-forecast call.[2][5] Recent forecasts for Shanghai have shown highs around **35°C/95°F** with sporadic rain and thunderstorms, which highlights the usual tension in this market: heat can build quickly, but cloud, rain and wind can cap the afternoon maximum.[1][3] For comparison, that means a low implied price is only sensible if the YES band is materially above the ordinary July high rather than simply above average summer weather.[2][5]

Traders should watch the day’s official station observations rather than citywide forecasts, because settlement is tied to the highest temperature at the Pudong airport station on the calendar day, not to an average or a forecast high. The most relevant catalysts are the timing of sunshine, convection and rain bands across the afternoon, plus any late-morning or early-afternoon spike before showers move in.[3] Since the market resolves off Wunderground’s daily history page for ZSPD, the on-chain position will move only when that final recorded maximum becomes clear, not when broader Shanghai forecasts change.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.