Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shanghai airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively treating a very hot late-July outcome as out of range today. That price sits on top of a USDC-settled position on Polygon, with the conditional token resolving off the single Wunderground reading for the *highest* temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, rather than a citywide average or a forecast midpoint.

The historical frame is straightforward: Shanghai’s late-July heat is often severe, but the airport station still needs a specific daily maximum to land in the relevant band. Recent July comparables show highs around 31°C to 35°C in several years, with 2024 reaching 37°C on 31 July at a Shanghai historical-weather source, while climate summaries put July averages near 31°C to 32°C for daytime highs and note that the month is among the city’s hottest.[2][4][9] That matters for reading the book: a 0% line implies the crowd expects the eventual Wunderground airport maximum to settle outside the YES range, despite Shanghai’s summer tendency to produce repeated 35°C-plus readings.[2][3][11]

Traders should watch the local forecast evolution into the afternoon and whether any heat advisory or thunderstorm-driven cooling changes the terminal maximum, because the contract resolves on the day’s highest recorded temperature, not the noon snapshot. Wunderground’s own daily history page for Shanghai Pudong International Airport is the settlement source, so the relevant dependency is the final station data update rather than broader city reporting.[8] In practical terms, Polymarket holders are exposed to the exact airport observation that lands before the settlement window closes, not to how hot central Shanghai feels or what other stations report.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.