Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day in degrees Celsius, a real-world metric that determines the outcome of this on-chain contract. Polymarket currently prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not fall within the specified range, while the frontrunner outcome is 32°C at 34% probability, with 33°C trailing at 28%[2][3]. This pricing reflects a market that expects a warm summer day, consistent with historical patterns where July highs at Pudong regularly exceed 30°C, often reaching 35°C under sunny conditions[7].

Historical data shows daily high temperatures in July at Pudong increase from 84°F to 88°F (roughly 29°C to 31°C), rarely dropping below 75°F (24°C) or exceeding 95°F (35°C)[1]. The average daily shortwave solar energy also rises through July, supporting higher temperatures, which frames the current 0% YES probability as a mispricing if the specified range includes 32°C or above. Traders should watch the National Weather Service’s real-time updates for ZSPD, which currently show 77°F (25°C) at 4:30 am, and monitor any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind direction that could push the day’s peak higher[4].

Key catalysts include the scheduled release of Wunderground’s daily high temperature record for ZSPD, which will be the official resolution source[2]. Traders must also track any weather announcements from China’s Meteorological Administration regarding heatwaves or thunderstorms, as these can significantly alter the peak temperature. A recent report from WeatherSpark confirms that solar energy input is gradually increasing in July, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures reaching or exceeding 32°C[1]. With USDC settlements on Polygon and conditional tokens governing the payout, the on-chain mechanics ensure transparent, automated resolution once the data is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.