Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 5 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily history. Today, Polymarket prices the contract at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded. This stark pricing contrasts sharply with Shanghai’s typical July climate, where daily highs average 89°F (32°C) and frequently exceed 35°C (95°F), rarely dropping below 76°F (24°C) [1][9].

Historical data frames this 0% probability as highly questionable. In recent years, Shanghai has experienced extreme heat, including a national average of 22.3°C in summer 2025—the highest since 1961—and all-time highs reaching 40.9°C (105.6°F) [3][5]. Just two days prior, on 3 July 2026, temperatures in Shanghai hit 92.8°F (33.8°C), suggesting the city remains in a persistent heatwave [6]. Traders should watch for official announcements from the National Climate Center regarding upcoming heatwave schedules and ozone levels, as these dependencies often drive temperature spikes [7]. Recent reports confirm China recorded its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with averages eclipsing previous records [2]. Given this context, the 0% pricing appears to ignore the strong on-chain evidence of sustained high temperatures.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.