Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the on-chain market on Polygon is effectively saying there is no paid-in expectation of a very hot 1 August reading at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport. Because settlement is against the **highest recorded temperature** at that station on the day, not the daily average, the final outcome can still be pushed up by a brief midday spike even if the morning starts close to seasonal norms.

For context, Shenzhen’s August climate is usually hot and humid rather than extreme, with average highs clustered around **31–32°C** and typical day-time readings near the high 80s to around 90°F. Independent climate references also show that early August often sits near **90–97°F** on the warmest days, while more settled August days are lower, which makes the precise airport maximum more important than the broader city average.[1][2][4][10]

The main catalysts are local weather developments rather than scheduled announcements: cloud cover, sea-breeze strength, rainfall timing, and any typhoon-related disturbance across Guangdong can quickly suppress or lift the station maximum. Traders watching the contract will want the Shenzhen airport history page on Wunderground because the market resolves from that station’s reported daily high, and the window closes at **12:00 UTC**, so late-afternoon local warmth still matters if it is captured before the cut-off.[11][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.