Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's position two years forward and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather events at such distance. Traders are effectively pricing maximum uncertainty, with conditional tokens on Polygon representing fractional claims across the temperature distribution.

Shenzhen's August climate provides a historical anchor: the city experiences peak summer heat during this month, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extreme readings occasionally exceed 36°C. The 2023 August average high was approximately 33°C, whilst 2022 saw comparable figures. These historical patterns suggest the market's current zero-probability assessment reflects not a forecast of unusually cool conditions, but rather the practical difficulty of establishing meaningful odds on a specific date two years distant. Weather Underground's Bao'an station data has remained consistent as the standard reference for such contracts.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate forecasts released by the China Meteorological Administration in mid-2026, which typically provide August outlooks by June. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing in 2025–2026 could shift baseline temperatures across southern China. The actual resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table availability and accuracy on the settlement date; any platform outages or data discrepancies would trigger resolution protocols specified in the market terms.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.