Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices all temperature outcomes at 0% YES across the board, suggesting either a technical issue with the market interface or that traders have not yet engaged with this contract. Polymarket's conditional token architecture on Polygon means whichever temperature band resolves TRUE will distribute USDC to holders of that specific outcome token, whilst all other positions expire worthless.

Shenzhen's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs in mid-August cluster between 31–34°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 30°C. The airport station, located in the coastal Bao'an district, experiences slightly moderating sea breezes compared to inland areas. August 2025 saw a peak of 33.2°C on the 16th; 2024 recorded 32.8°C the same date. This seasonal stability means the probability distribution should concentrate heavily on the 32–34°C bands, making the current flat 0% pricing across all outcomes an anomaly worth investigating before committing capital.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea that could alter typical August patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 August, giving traders roughly 24 hours after local midnight to adjust positions based on actual morning temperature readings before final resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.