Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s July 7, 2026, high temperature at Bao’an International Airport is the real-world event this market resolves on, with historical data showing average highs near 32°C and frequent rainfall due to subtropical highs and typhoons[1][2]. On Polymarket, the contract currently prices at 0% YES for the highest temperature exceeding 33°C, reflecting the crowd’s view that extreme heat is unlikely despite July being Shenzhen’s hottest month[1][3]. This on-chain pricing, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, mirrors how traders interpret climatology: while the monthly average high is 32°C, the presence of 17 rainy days and 340 mm of precipitation typically suppresses peak temperatures[1].

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave forecasts and any typhoon development in the South China Sea, as these are the primary catalysts that could shift temperature outcomes[1][8]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures rising since 1961, suggesting a warmer baseline that could elevate 2026 highs if dry conditions persist[8]. However, the dependency on wet weather remains critical; if heavy showers arrive as subtropical patterns dictate, the 33°C threshold becomes improbable, aligning with the current 0% probability[1]. Watch Wunderground’s hourly updates for Bao’an Airport on July 7, as the resolution hinges on the highest recorded temperature for all times that day[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.