Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract trading at a **0% crowd-implied probability of YES** today, so the book is effectively saying the listed outcome is not being priced at all in USDC terms on Polygon. For a temperature-range market, that matters more than the abstract weather story: the settlement depends on the **highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport Station** on 6 August, with winners paid through conditional tokens if the value lands in the relevant bucket.

Singapore’s late-summer climate usually keeps daytime highs clustered in the low 30s Celsius rather than at extremes. Long-run August averages point to daily highs around **31°C to 33°C**, with highs around **33–34°C** also featured in the National Environment Agency’s August outlook for the first fortnight, alongside occasional short thundery showers and drier, sometimes windy conditions[12][19]. That historical baseline helps explain why traders often anchor around the mid-30s bands rather than treating very low or very high outcomes as equally likely. The market’s current zero pricing for YES therefore looks like a strong statement that the crowd sees the chosen range as misaligned with the expected daily peak, not that Singapore will be cool.

The main catalyst is the day itself: whether late-morning or afternoon convection allows the airport station to briefly spike before cloud and rain cap the maximum. Traders should watch the **official daily forecast updates** from Singapore’s meteorological sources and the Wunderground history page used for settlement, because the market resolves on the recorded high, not on “feels like” values or citywide averages[12][10]. In practice, the relevant inputs are the timing of showers, the strength of the southwest monsoon flow, and whether the airport’s reading prints into the top of the usual August range rather than below it.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.