Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Taipei temperature contract as effectively **dead**, with the crowd-implied probability at **0% YES** even though the event is still open until the settlement window closes. On Polymarket, traders are buying and selling USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, so the quote reflects the market’s collective view of whether the Taipei Songshan Airport Station will print a qualifying daily high in the specified Celsius band on 1 August.

For context, Taipei in early August is normally hot enough to keep the upper temperature bands in play, with forecast and reference material pointing to daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and a typical August high around 32–36°C. Polymarket’s own market page shows the leading outcomes clustered around **36°C** and **37°C**, which fits the city’s late-summer subtropical pattern and the possibility of brief spikes from humidity and urban heat. Historical guides also note that August can produce extremes well above average, including a recorded August peak of 38°C in Taipei in the last decade.

A trader watching this market should focus on the day’s actual observation stream from Wunderground for Taipei Songshan Airport, because the contract resolves to the highest recorded temperature for that station on the date, not a forecast. The market page says revisions inside the window count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late updates matter if the station’s daily maximum is revised after the fact. In practical terms, the key catalysts are the live weather pattern over northern Taiwan, any afternoon convective development, and whether the station records a clean late-day peak before the August 2 datapoint appears.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.