Highest temperature in Taipei on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 10 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" range sitting at 0%. This reflects the market’s view that the specific temperature threshold in question is highly unlikely to be met given typical July conditions in Taipei.

Historically, July is the hottest month at Taipei Songshan Airport, with an average high of 92°F (33°C) and lows around 80°F (26°C)[1][4]. Recent years show consistent peak summer temperatures, with daily highs rarely dipping below 31°C even during rain events[8]. The current 0% probability suggests the market expects temperatures to stay within the usual range, making the targeted threshold improbable.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and forecasts from the Central Weather Administration, which currently indicate clear skies early on 10 July but heavy rain later in the day[7][8]. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could influence peak temperatures, though the prevailing forecast points to typical July highs. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, will settle the market once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.