Highest temperature in Taipei on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, Taipei will experience peak summer heat, and this market resolves based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Songshan Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state on Polygon, where conditional tokens representing each temperature band trade at minimal value. Traders holding YES tokens for any range would need USDC settlement against Wunderground's historical data feed, making this a straightforward temperature-band prediction with no ambiguity in the underlying measurement source.

Taipei's July temperatures cluster reliably between 32–36°C at peak afternoon hours, with extreme readings above 37°C occurring roughly once every three to five years during particularly intense heat waves. Historical records from the Central Weather Administration show that sustained high-pressure systems over East Asia in mid-July occasionally push daily maxima into the 38–39°C range, though readings above 40°C remain exceptionally rare at the airport station itself. The 2023 summer saw multiple days exceeding 37°C across northern Taiwan, providing recent context for how often elevated ranges materialise.

The primary catalyst affecting this outcome is the Pacific typhoon season's trajectory and any westward-tracking systems that might alter atmospheric circulation patterns across Taiwan in early-to-mid July 2026. Conversely, stable high-pressure ridges favour sustained heat accumulation. The Taiwan Central Weather Administration publishes seasonal forecasts and weekly outlooks that traders can monitor from April onwards, though precise temperature predictions more than a month ahead carry substantial uncertainty. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 19 July, allowing Wunderground's historical database sufficient time to record the full day's readings.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.